Yesterday's blog dealt with the ramifications of failed Long Island policies and mindsets that are driving the region's young people away in droves. Today we present some numbers that point out just how drastic and dangerous the situation is.
According to the Long Island Association, the American Community Survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that from 2000 through 2007 Long Island''s population between the ages of 25 and 44 declined by 157,424, a rate of 18.99 percent. Through 2006, the loss had been 122,477, a rate of 14.8 percent.
Those are some scary numbers.
Apparently our elected officials are not concerned about these people because they have left the Island and therefore are in no position to cast votes. Since the name of the game is getting re-elected, the Powers That Be will continue to cater to those who are still here - people who shoot down every attempt to create a situation that would encourage young people to establish roots here - no matter how short-sighted this line of thinking is. Let somebody else worry about what's going to happen a few years from now when the companies start leaving - and taking their jobs with them - because there's an insufficient workforce to support them here.
We need to develop our downtowns and we need to do it now. In Suffolk we need sewers to allow for this density.
Here are some more numbers and thoughts from the LIA: From 2000 through 2007, the ACS estimates that the overall population of Long Island grew by only 5,849. By way of contrast, the ACS estimate for 2000 through 2006, showed a population increase of 41,464. So, the new estimate suggests a significant one-year decline in population growth.
Long Island continues to have the highest rate of decline in the 25 to 44 group in New York State, and in the metropolitan area. The average rate of decline in New York City was 2.24 percent, and in the other New York City suburbs it was 14.43 percent. In all New York City suburbs collectively (New Jersey and Connecticut included) it was 10.64 percent. In upstate New York, the decline was 11.57 percent. No single upstate statistical area had a rate of decline as high as Long Island''s, including Erie County. For national demographic context, the rate of decline in the 25 to 44 year old age group was 1.93 percent, about one-tenth of the rate of decline experienced on Long Island.
Reflecting the decline in people of childbearing years, the ACS estimates that Long Island's population of children from birth through 9 years of age declined by 55,599 from 2000 through 2007.
The population decline in an age group can be attributed to past birthrates and aging, as well as to out-migration. To assess the decline of Long Island''s younger population, it is important to look at the relative trends. Demographics affect all areas. If Long Island's relative rate of decline is significantly higher than other comparable areas, that suggests that there is more at work than just birth rates.
The American Community Survey of the Census Bureau annually estimates population for many areas of the country using the official methodology that will be used in the decennial census. That methodology has been approved by all major organizations of statistical professionals in the nation. It is not without its critics in public office, however. Both county executives have decided to challenge the ACS estimates using a different methodology, which in part draws upon LIPA's way of estimating population. That method uses an analysis of electrical meters and population assumptions relating to them. LIPA''s estimates have always been higher than the Census Bureau's count.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Long Island's Future Votes With Its Feet
I was asked to write a recommendation for a former colleague this morning who now lives in Washington D.C. She choose to live in Washington because there she can "live in an apartment and take the train to work," two things she can not do on Long Island unless she wants to live in Western Nassau County and work in Manhattan.
This young lady is bright, talented, hard-working. She loves Long Island and was committed to do whatever it takes to make her native region a better place. Long Island, on the other hand, has done nothing to requite that love. As a region we have blocked efforts to create workforce or affordable housing, our infrastructure renders inter-community mass transit impossible and our tax structure is so onerous that the few young people willing to try to make it here start out behind a huge financial 8-ball.
On top of all that, there are painfully few entertainment options on this Island if you are under 30.
According to the Long Island Association, more than 157,000 Long Islanders between the ages of 18 and 34 have left Long Island since 2000. This represents a significant depletion of the Long Island workforce and without workers companies cannot and will not stay on the Island. As companies move off the Island and take their jobs with them, the tax burden on the remaining families will grow even greater - to the point where Long Island will become an economic ghost town.
The Long Island Builders Institute will endeavor to make sure this does not happen. We will continue to champion the cause of building suitable housing for the next generation while at the same time doing everything we can to ensure the quality of life that makes this region so special.
I do not want to write any more recommendations for talented Long Islanders living off-Island.
This young lady is bright, talented, hard-working. She loves Long Island and was committed to do whatever it takes to make her native region a better place. Long Island, on the other hand, has done nothing to requite that love. As a region we have blocked efforts to create workforce or affordable housing, our infrastructure renders inter-community mass transit impossible and our tax structure is so onerous that the few young people willing to try to make it here start out behind a huge financial 8-ball.
On top of all that, there are painfully few entertainment options on this Island if you are under 30.
According to the Long Island Association, more than 157,000 Long Islanders between the ages of 18 and 34 have left Long Island since 2000. This represents a significant depletion of the Long Island workforce and without workers companies cannot and will not stay on the Island. As companies move off the Island and take their jobs with them, the tax burden on the remaining families will grow even greater - to the point where Long Island will become an economic ghost town.
The Long Island Builders Institute will endeavor to make sure this does not happen. We will continue to champion the cause of building suitable housing for the next generation while at the same time doing everything we can to ensure the quality of life that makes this region so special.
I do not want to write any more recommendations for talented Long Islanders living off-Island.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
What Else Don't We Know About?
Governor Paterson is making a clarion call to anyone who will listen that New York State is in desperate financial straits. Mayor Bloomberg is making a case that New York City needs to skirt the law calling for term limits that will force him out of office because the city needs his guidance through the financial difficulties that lay ahead. Elected officials at the county, town and village levels are singing the blues.
It would seem to make sense that they are. Everybody is hurting - why shouldn't government be feeling the pinch?
Then you read a story like the one Juan Gonzalez wrote in today's Daily News. Apparently the New York City Board of Education sees nothing wrong with spending $5 million in 2008 for private couriers - more than double the messenger tab before Schools Chancellor Joel Klein took over in 2002. Apparently the couriers are paid to pick up the tests from all schools and deliver them to the Department of Education's computer center in Queens. There is no explanation as to why using an overnight delivery service is not good enough.
There is also the $80 million contract NYC DOE awarded to CTB McGraw-Hill a few years ago to design all of the new assessment tests and score them. Or the $80 million contract to IBM for ARIS, the new computer database that will track all information about students, including all those test scores.
The point is this: Is anyone in government paying attention to spending that's going on? What other out-of-control spending is going on that we don't know about?
In business you watch every dime because what goes out the door comes out of the owner's pocket. Not so in government. The LIRR's disability scandal is another case in point. LIRR officials claim to be outraged that this is going on, but nobody would have done anything if the New York Times hadn't looked into the situation. And Newsday's probe of attorneys and elected officials helping themselves to state pensions that they should not be entitled to is also quite scary.
Don't even get me started about the state, the county and the Town of East Hampton lining the pockets of Dick Cavett to the tune of $18 million - buying property that no private developer would touch.
Who's looking out for the taxpayer? Who in government is going to recognize that we the taxpaying public can no longer afford to just keep feeding the cash trough? When will the we the taxpayer rise up as one and say ENOUGH!
I can only hope that this difficult economic climate we are enduring right now will result in greater scrutiny of government spending. It is incumbent upon us as taxpayers to demand the same lean and mean operations from government that we are required to maintain as business people.
It would seem to make sense that they are. Everybody is hurting - why shouldn't government be feeling the pinch?
Then you read a story like the one Juan Gonzalez wrote in today's Daily News. Apparently the New York City Board of Education sees nothing wrong with spending $5 million in 2008 for private couriers - more than double the messenger tab before Schools Chancellor Joel Klein took over in 2002. Apparently the couriers are paid to pick up the tests from all schools and deliver them to the Department of Education's computer center in Queens. There is no explanation as to why using an overnight delivery service is not good enough.
There is also the $80 million contract NYC DOE awarded to CTB McGraw-Hill a few years ago to design all of the new assessment tests and score them. Or the $80 million contract to IBM for ARIS, the new computer database that will track all information about students, including all those test scores.
The point is this: Is anyone in government paying attention to spending that's going on? What other out-of-control spending is going on that we don't know about?
In business you watch every dime because what goes out the door comes out of the owner's pocket. Not so in government. The LIRR's disability scandal is another case in point. LIRR officials claim to be outraged that this is going on, but nobody would have done anything if the New York Times hadn't looked into the situation. And Newsday's probe of attorneys and elected officials helping themselves to state pensions that they should not be entitled to is also quite scary.
Don't even get me started about the state, the county and the Town of East Hampton lining the pockets of Dick Cavett to the tune of $18 million - buying property that no private developer would touch.
Who's looking out for the taxpayer? Who in government is going to recognize that we the taxpaying public can no longer afford to just keep feeding the cash trough? When will the we the taxpayer rise up as one and say ENOUGH!
I can only hope that this difficult economic climate we are enduring right now will result in greater scrutiny of government spending. It is incumbent upon us as taxpayers to demand the same lean and mean operations from government that we are required to maintain as business people.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
No rest (stop) for the weary
No situation epitomizes the mindset that makes it so hard to get anything done on Long Island better than the seemingly annual attempt to build a small rest stop at exit 51 on the Long Island Expressway.
Generating $6 billion-plus annually tourism is Long Island's larget industry. Yet nowhere on Long Island will you find a road-side rest stop. Drive anywhere else in the United States and you will come across a rest area where you can relax, stretch your legs, use a clean bathroom and perhaps learn more about the attractions the area has to offer. And spend money, especially if you have kids along for the ride. Not on Long Island. Here the mentality seems to be, "Welcome to Long Island; You're on your own."
According to an article in "The Long Islander", a local civic association official addressed legislators at a recent reception held by the Long Island Convention and Visitors Bureau to garner legislative support for such a basic tourist-attraction tool. The civic leader said, "If they want to have a rest stop that's fine but don't put it in people's backyards." Bear in mind, folks, that the rest stop is proposed to be right alongside the LIE and that these "backyards" abut an Interstate highway.
Assemblyman Andrew Raia suggested that the rest stop belonged "further out east," but you can be sure the "Out East" folks will fight that just as strenously.
Will Long Island's tourism industry crumble because there's no rest stop on the LIE? Most likely no. But Long Island's lack of hospitality and common courtesy - as well as its 'I got mine so everybody else be damned' mindset is disturbing. So is the lack of an Island-wide government entity that can step up and say, "Hey, this is good for the region so if a few people are inconvenienced so be it."
What rules on Long Island is the notion that the civic association who can make the most noise will get whatever he or she wants, just as long as the elected official in charge can be reassured of getting re-elected. I don't see this changing anytime soon. I just hope it does not lead to the ruination of the region.
Generating $6 billion-plus annually tourism is Long Island's larget industry. Yet nowhere on Long Island will you find a road-side rest stop. Drive anywhere else in the United States and you will come across a rest area where you can relax, stretch your legs, use a clean bathroom and perhaps learn more about the attractions the area has to offer. And spend money, especially if you have kids along for the ride. Not on Long Island. Here the mentality seems to be, "Welcome to Long Island; You're on your own."
According to an article in "The Long Islander", a local civic association official addressed legislators at a recent reception held by the Long Island Convention and Visitors Bureau to garner legislative support for such a basic tourist-attraction tool. The civic leader said, "If they want to have a rest stop that's fine but don't put it in people's backyards." Bear in mind, folks, that the rest stop is proposed to be right alongside the LIE and that these "backyards" abut an Interstate highway.
Assemblyman Andrew Raia suggested that the rest stop belonged "further out east," but you can be sure the "Out East" folks will fight that just as strenously.
Will Long Island's tourism industry crumble because there's no rest stop on the LIE? Most likely no. But Long Island's lack of hospitality and common courtesy - as well as its 'I got mine so everybody else be damned' mindset is disturbing. So is the lack of an Island-wide government entity that can step up and say, "Hey, this is good for the region so if a few people are inconvenienced so be it."
What rules on Long Island is the notion that the civic association who can make the most noise will get whatever he or she wants, just as long as the elected official in charge can be reassured of getting re-elected. I don't see this changing anytime soon. I just hope it does not lead to the ruination of the region.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Welcoming the bottom
An analyst was quoted on the radio this morning saying that the last Monday in October has served as "the bottom" of several the most recent bear markets. One can only hope he is correct.
Getting this election season behind us - regardless of who wins - should also serve as the cathartic release we need to get going again. Between now and next week, however, we can expect the onslaught of cutbacks and concerns aired publicly to continue because so many corporations will seize this opportunity to unload deadwood.
That said, it should be noted the Associated Press is reporting this morning that sales of new homes recorded an unexpected increase in September as median home prices dropped to the lowest level in four years. The Commerce Department reported Monday that sales of new single-family homes rose by 2.7 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 464,000 homes. Economists had expected sales would drop from the August level.
So hang in there is the message of the day. Heck - it's the message of the year. Better times are ahead.
Getting this election season behind us - regardless of who wins - should also serve as the cathartic release we need to get going again. Between now and next week, however, we can expect the onslaught of cutbacks and concerns aired publicly to continue because so many corporations will seize this opportunity to unload deadwood.
That said, it should be noted the Associated Press is reporting this morning that sales of new homes recorded an unexpected increase in September as median home prices dropped to the lowest level in four years. The Commerce Department reported Monday that sales of new single-family homes rose by 2.7 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 464,000 homes. Economists had expected sales would drop from the August level.
So hang in there is the message of the day. Heck - it's the message of the year. Better times are ahead.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Hooray for Hollywood!
Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy was quoted in the Sunday New York Times as saying, "We'll bend over backward and roll out a red carpet...it's a clean industry that gets a major infusion into the economy." He added that he has put before the county legislature a proposal that would "spare" this industry's representatives "the hassle of getting separate permits from villages and towns."
Has Mr. Levy gotten religion and suddenly realized how difficult local municipalities make things for home builders? That solving the housing problems plaguing the region is the most crucial step he can take to turn around the local economy?
Alas and alack, my friends, he has not. Mr. Levy was referring to attracting Hollywood production companies to Long Island. Apparently television and movies are the answer to Suffolk County's future.
To be fair, Mr. Levy has made housing a priority and demonstrated his commitment to that priority by giving Affordable Housing guru Jim Morgo such a dominant role in his administration. But for the love of God, man, if you are going to take such bold steps to help an industry jump-start the economy, why not focus on the industry that is already here and in a position to create the housing so sorely needed to keep the next generation of workers on Long Island. Those workers will determine whether the thousands of companies already here get to stay here, not the glamour of Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt sightings at the local Starbucks while they shoot their next great cinema classic.
Why not create a county-wide permitting procedure so our builders do not have to endure the time-consuming paper chase that creates costly delays in the construction process? Why not expedite matters so our builders can start building and putting hundreds of tradesmen and women to work - work that generates economy activity and tax dollars?
Granted, watching a young family move into their first home may not have the sex appeal of Lindsay Lohan strutting down the red carpet at a Hollywood premier but in the grand scheme of things it means a lot more to the future of Long Island.
Has Mr. Levy gotten religion and suddenly realized how difficult local municipalities make things for home builders? That solving the housing problems plaguing the region is the most crucial step he can take to turn around the local economy?
Alas and alack, my friends, he has not. Mr. Levy was referring to attracting Hollywood production companies to Long Island. Apparently television and movies are the answer to Suffolk County's future.
To be fair, Mr. Levy has made housing a priority and demonstrated his commitment to that priority by giving Affordable Housing guru Jim Morgo such a dominant role in his administration. But for the love of God, man, if you are going to take such bold steps to help an industry jump-start the economy, why not focus on the industry that is already here and in a position to create the housing so sorely needed to keep the next generation of workers on Long Island. Those workers will determine whether the thousands of companies already here get to stay here, not the glamour of Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt sightings at the local Starbucks while they shoot their next great cinema classic.
Why not create a county-wide permitting procedure so our builders do not have to endure the time-consuming paper chase that creates costly delays in the construction process? Why not expedite matters so our builders can start building and putting hundreds of tradesmen and women to work - work that generates economy activity and tax dollars?
Granted, watching a young family move into their first home may not have the sex appeal of Lindsay Lohan strutting down the red carpet at a Hollywood premier but in the grand scheme of things it means a lot more to the future of Long Island.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Opportunities are available for builders to rehab foreclosed homes
This item is from this week's NAHB bulletin.
HUD is distributing nearly $4 billion to states and local communities to help them remove foreclosed and abandoned properties from the market in a process aimed at stabilizing neighborhoods that have been hit hard by the housing crisis. As part of the new Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) that was included in the Housing and Economic Recovery Act passed by Congress this summer.
Following rules established by HUD, such homes can be purchased and rehabilitated, or if they are too deteriorated, they can be demolished and redeveloped. The funds may also be used to provide financing for eligible households to purchase these properties. States and localities may choose to administer the NSP program directly or by contracting with a third party. While the law does not permit any entity to make a profit on the sale of these homes, builders may earn developer fees as part of the rehabilitation or redevelopment costs.
NAHB members should contact their local or state government to find out how the program will be implemented and what opportunities may be available for builders. For an NAHB summary of the program rules,click here. For information about the program from HUD, click here..
HUD is distributing nearly $4 billion to states and local communities to help them remove foreclosed and abandoned properties from the market in a process aimed at stabilizing neighborhoods that have been hit hard by the housing crisis. As part of the new Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) that was included in the Housing and Economic Recovery Act passed by Congress this summer.
Following rules established by HUD, such homes can be purchased and rehabilitated, or if they are too deteriorated, they can be demolished and redeveloped. The funds may also be used to provide financing for eligible households to purchase these properties. States and localities may choose to administer the NSP program directly or by contracting with a third party. While the law does not permit any entity to make a profit on the sale of these homes, builders may earn developer fees as part of the rehabilitation or redevelopment costs.
NAHB members should contact their local or state government to find out how the program will be implemented and what opportunities may be available for builders. For an NAHB summary of the program rules,click here. For information about the program from HUD, click here..
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