Long Island's Future Votes With Its Feet, Part 2

Yesterday's blog dealt with the ramifications of failed Long Island policies and mindsets that are driving the region's young people away in droves. Today we present some numbers that point out just how drastic and dangerous the situation is.

According to the Long Island Association, the American Community Survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that from 2000 through 2007 Long Island''s population between the ages of 25 and 44 declined by 157,424, a rate of 18.99 percent. Through 2006, the loss had been 122,477, a rate of 14.8 percent.

Those are some scary numbers.

Apparently our elected officials are not concerned about these people because they have left the Island and therefore are in no position to cast votes. Since the name of the game is getting re-elected, the Powers That Be will continue to cater to those who are still here - people who shoot down every attempt to create a situation that would encourage young people to establish roots here - no matter how short-sighted this line of thinking is. Let somebody else worry about what's going to happen a few years from now when the companies start leaving - and taking their jobs with them - because there's an insufficient workforce to support them here.

We need to develop our downtowns and we need to do it now. In Suffolk we need sewers to allow for this density.

Here are some more numbers and thoughts from the LIA: From 2000 through 2007, the ACS estimates that the overall population of Long Island grew by only 5,849. By way of contrast, the ACS estimate for 2000 through 2006, showed a population increase of 41,464. So, the new estimate suggests a significant one-year decline in population growth.

Long Island continues to have the highest rate of decline in the 25 to 44 group in New York State, and in the metropolitan area. The average rate of decline in New York City was 2.24 percent, and in the other New York City suburbs it was 14.43 percent. In all New York City suburbs collectively (New Jersey and Connecticut included) it was 10.64 percent. In upstate New York, the decline was 11.57 percent. No single upstate statistical area had a rate of decline as high as Long Island''s, including Erie County. For national demographic context, the rate of decline in the 25 to 44 year old age group was 1.93 percent, about one-tenth of the rate of decline experienced on Long Island.

Reflecting the decline in people of childbearing years, the ACS estimates that Long Island's population of children from birth through 9 years of age declined by 55,599 from 2000 through 2007.

The population decline in an age group can be attributed to past birthrates and aging, as well as to out-migration. To assess the decline of Long Island''s younger population, it is important to look at the relative trends. Demographics affect all areas. If Long Island's relative rate of decline is significantly higher than other comparable areas, that suggests that there is more at work than just birth rates.

The American Community Survey of the Census Bureau annually estimates population for many areas of the country using the official methodology that will be used in the decennial census. That methodology has been approved by all major organizations of statistical professionals in the nation. It is not without its critics in public office, however. Both county executives have decided to challenge the ACS estimates using a different methodology, which in part draws upon LIPA's way of estimating population. That method uses an analysis of electrical meters and population assumptions relating to them. LIPA''s estimates have always been higher than the Census Bureau's count.